The Economist reports about US plans to force global banks to organise their US operations in separately capitalised and regulated subsidiaries.
Category Archives: Notes
Household Balance Sheets in the Euro Area
The ECB has published the results of the Eurosystem’s first Household Finance and Consumption Survey. Some results:
- About 60% of households in the euro area own their main residence—with or without a mortgage. About 11% own a business, and 76% own vehicles.
- 97% of households own sight deposits or savings accounts. Some (33%) hold voluntary private pensions or life insurance and few (15%) own other financial assets. Only a quarter of households in the top income quintile holds mutual funds; also, a quarter of households in the top income quintile holds publicly traded shares.
- 23% of households have mortgage debt and 29% have non-mortgage debt. Conditional on having debt, the median value is Euro 68400 and Euro 5000, respectively.
Here are the mean and median net wealth statistics by country and socioeconomic characteristic.
Haircut Estimates for 180 Sovereign Debt Restructurings
Juan Cruces and Christoph Trebesch have posted data on 180 sovereign debt restructurings between 1978 and 2010. They analyse this data in a paper forthcoming in the American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.
Cruces and Trebesch consider distressed restructurings of medium and long-term public or publicly guaranteed debt with foreign private creditors (including commercial banks and bondholders but excluding official creditors organised in the Paris Club) that were ever finalized. Their preferred haircut measure varies between -10% (Brazil, February 1983) and 97% (Republic of Yemen, February 2001).
IMF Discussion Note on Banking Union in the Euro Area
Rishi Goyal, Petya Koeva Brooks, Mahmood Pradhan, Thierry Tressel, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, Ross Leckow, Ceyla Pazarbasioglu et al discuss the case for a banking union in the Euro area in an IMF Staff Discussion Note. The authors argue in favour of both a single supervisory-regulatory framework and a common resolution mechanism as well as safety net.
Surnames and Social Mobility
The Economist reports about research that exploits variation in the frequency of surnames over time to infer the degree of social mobility over centuries.
As late as 2011 aristocratic surnames appear among the ranks of lawyers, considered for this purpose a high-status position, at a frequency almost six times that of their occurrence in the population as a whole. Mr Clark reckons that even in famously mobile Sweden, some 70-80% of a family’s social status is transmitted from generation to generation across a span of centuries. Other economists use similar techniques to reveal comparable immobility in societies from 19th-century Spain to post-Qing-dynasty China.
The article quotes several papers on the topic.
Chinese Government Report on Options to Reduce Wealth Inequality
Markus Ackeret in the NZZ discusses a long-awaited Chinese government report on policy options to reduce wealth disparities. They include: Less manipulation of interest rates; more manipulation of wages; higher real estate taxes; higher dividend payments of government owned enterprises; changes in the legal status of workers moving from the countryside to the cities (hukou).
Options for British Tax Evaders to Come Clean
hus in the NZZ writes about options for British tax evaders to come clean about hidden financial assets abroad.
UK residents with Swiss assets who do not want their identity to be disclosed to the British authorities can pay taxes on their asset holdings to the Swiss authorities instead; the Swiss will (partly) hand them over to London. The relevant treaty between the UK and Switzerland was put into effect in 2013.
UK residents often prefer an alternative option, though, namely to “legalise” their world wide asset holdings using a treaty between Liechtenstein and the UK. According to that treaty, assets fully declared before the end of 2016 trigger a penalty of about 10% to 20% of the relevant asset holdings, as compensation for evaded taxes in the past. British tax payers can use this option as long as the fraction of their offshore assets that they invested in Liechtenstein is sufficiently high.
Iceland’s Deposit Insurance Found Non-Discriminatory
The Economist reports about an EFTA court decision concerning Iceland’s decision to discriminate among depositors after the collapse of Icesave, an online bank. The bank had collected deposits in the UK and the Netherlands, using a European “passport” which relied on the notion that the Icelandic deposit insurance scheme would back those deposits. After the collapse, the insurance turned out to be insufficient; while Icelandic savers received their money back, British and Dutch depositors did not. But eventually, their respective governments bailed them out—and now went to court.
… the court found that Iceland was obliged only to make sure that it had a deposit-insurance scheme. The state was not required to pay out if the scheme had no money because of a banking crisis. Oddly, the court also found that Iceland had not breached an obligation not to discriminate between domestic and foreign depositors, even though it made only the domestic ones whole.
Newsletter of the Study Center Gerzensee
The new edition features an interview with Douglas Gale on “Financial Crises and Liquidity Regulation.” PDF.
Arizona
Utah
Quality of Life in 2030
The Economist reports about the Economist Intelligence Unit’s quality-of-life predictions. In a first step, current life satisfaction is “explained” based on a cross country, multivariate regression using eleven indicators like national income, crime, trust or health. In the second step, the predicted values of those indicators in the year 2030 are used to predict future life satisfaction.
Switzerland clearly wins, ahead of Australia, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Singapore, New Zealand, Netherlands, Canada, Hong Kong, Finland, Ireland, Austria, Taiwan, Belgium, Germany, United States, United Arab Emirates, South Korea and Israel. More on the methodology.
Conference on “The Swiss Debt Brake – Ten Years On” at the Study Center Gerzensee
On the occasion of the tenth anniversary of the Swiss “Debt Brake,” the Study Center Gerzensee organized a conference on fiscal institutions, joint with the Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, the Federal Finance Administration and the Universities of Lucerne and St. Gallen. The program can be viewed here (PDF).
A few tidbits: Eveline Widmer-Schlumpf (President of the Swiss Confederation) emphasized the importance of “rigor and flexibility” as well as democratic legitimacy for the success of the Swiss debt brake rule.
Against the background of his experience at the Congressional Budget Office, Barry Anderson (National Governors Association) stressed the importance of the personality of the head of an independent fiscal institution: What is needed, in his view, is a low key technician who avoids the limelight.
Guido Tabellini (Bocconi University) argued that a successful budgetary framework needs to be consistent with the political system. Rules on the local level can be stricter and simpler because of transfers on the national level and national enforcement possibilities. Enforcement requires public support and thus, understanding by voters.
Similarly, Joakim Sonnegård (Swedish Fiscal Policy Council) argued in favor of self-enforcing mechanisms and institutionalized memory of bad times.
Addendum:
Conference papers published in the Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (2013 II; summary).
Elisabeth Haich’s “Einweihung (Initiation)”
Newsletter of the Study Center Gerzensee
The new edition features an interview with Jeremy Stein on “Financial Crises and Financial Stability.” PDF.
History of the World
The British Museum and the BBC review the history of mankind in 100 objects.
Anniversary of the Study Center Gerzensee
The history of the “New Castle,” the home of the Study Center Gerzensee, goes back to 1700 when a belvedere – built in French baroque style on the slopes of the Belpberg in the community of Gerzensee – was raised by Samuel Morlot. Over the centuries, many families owned the property before the Swiss National Bank acquired it in 1980. Four years later, the foundation Study Center Gerzensee was established and the Swiss National Bank transferred the manor house and surrounding real estate to the foundation. The first courses at the Study Center took place in 1986.
A brochure (in German) that was published on the occasion of the 25th anniversary of the opening of the Study Center reviews the history of the “New Castle.”
Newsletter of the Study Center Gerzensee
The new edition features an interview with Harrison Hong on “Behavioral Finance and Financial Crises.” PDF.
Languages and Their Structure
Martin Haspelmath has posted a fascinating set of slides (PDF, in German) about languages. Some facts:
- About 7000 languages are spoken; more than 800 in Papua New Guinea; 170 in the US; 7 in Germany.
- About 150 languages are spoken in Europe.
- 280 languages are spoken by more than one million people each, 450 languages by less than one hundred people each.
- The ranking of languages: 1. Mandarin. 2. English. 3. Spanish. 4. Hindi. 5. Arabic. 6. Portuguese. 7. Bengali. 8. Russian. 9. Japanese. 10. German.
- Roughly half of the world population speak one of these ten languages.
- The Georgian language allows for up to 7 consonants in a row.
- All languages feature words and sentences; questions and negation; names; expressions for “up” and “down.”
- Not all languages distinguish tempi or feature adjectives or expressions for numbers or for “and, or, left, right.”
Newsletter of the Study Center Gerzensee
The new edition features an interview with Nobuhiro Kiyotaki on monetary theory. PDF.
Currency, Electronic Money and the Zero Lower Bound
Willem Buiter argues in favour of negative nominal interest rates in his FT maverecon blog. He identifies the bearer security nature of currency (whose owner remains anonymous) as the fundamental cause of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates and discusses three possible strategies to relax the lower bound.
First, to abolish currency. As a consequence, central bank seignorage might fall and criminals would need to find new stores of value that guarantee anonymity. Limited privacy could be preserved by ‘cash-on-a-chip cards’ and for practicality reasons, small denominations could be kept. The price of the remaining cash expressed in terms of electronic money would fluctuate, however.
Second, to tax currency. Since cash can be held anonymously, this poses difficult incentive problems. It could be done but would be complicated and costly.
Third, to unbundle two functions of money, namely the medium of exchange/means of payment function on the one hand and the numéraire/unit of account function on the other. Suppose that there are two dollars, one unit of account dollar or “dollar” and one medium of exchange dollar or “m-dollar” (Buiter talks of “rallods” rather than m-dollars). Central bank reserves constitute dollars and might pay positive or negative interest while cash constitutes m-dollars and does not pay interest (or at least not negative interest). Monetary policy is conducted as usual by setting interest rates on dollars. In addition, the stock of m-dollars is fixed by the central bank, letting the market determine the exchange rate between dollars and m-dollars; or the central bank fixes an exchange rate between the dollar and m-dollar and elastically supplies m-dollars at this rate. In either case, the exchange rate will typically differ from unity and vary over time, in contrast to the current situation. Zero interest on the m-dollar and non-zero (positive or negative) interest on the dollar are consistent with no-arbitrage as long as the appreciation or depreciation of m-dollars relative to dollars compensates for the interest rate differential. For instance, if the central bank sets a negative interest rate on dollars, then the price of m-dollars (which pay zero interest) expressed in terms of dollars must fall over time that is, m-dollars must depreciate relative to dollars.
According to Buiter the third strategy suffers from just one possible problem: If for some reason, the numéraire ‘followed the currency’ and people started to quote prices in m-dollars then nothing would have been gained. But he argues that the government has means to coordinate society on using a specific money as unit of account, for instance by requiring taxes to be paid in that money (that is, in dollars rather than m-dollars).
Buiter refers to contributions by Eisler (1932), Goodfriend (2000), Buiter and Panigirtzoglou (2001, 2003), Davies (2004), Buiter (2004, 2007) as well as Mankiw’s blog post (April 19) on a graduate student proposal to depreciate cash by means of a lottery.
In another blog post a few days later, Buiter offers further discussion and a rather sarcastic comment on option two:
Taxing currency will, I am afraid, remain rather intrusive and administratively cumbersome. This may of course recommend it to some of our leaders.
He also notes that Charles Goodhart has been talking for years about the lottery proposal by Gregory Mankiw’s graduate student. And he points out that this proposal is not fool proof: Even when a lottery rendered bank notes with a specific last digit in their serial number “officially” worthless people might still continue to value them; confiscation threats etc. might therefore be needed in addition to the lottery in order to sustain the scheme.
Newsletter of the Study Center Gerzensee
The new edition features an interview with Hyun Shin on “Leverage.” PDF.
Newsletter of the Study Center Gerzensee
The new edition features an interview with Ricardo Caballero on “Global Imbalances.” PDF.
Newsletter of the Study Center Gerzensee
The new edition features an interview with Larry Christiano on “Identifying the Effects of Monetary Policy.” PDF.
Newsletter of the Study Center Gerzensee
The new edition features an interview with Sergio Rebelo on international macroeconomics. PDF.




