Tag Archives: Central bank digital currency

“Frontiers of Digital Finance,” CEPR, 2025

CEPR eBook, 12 November 2025. PDF, HTML.

VoxEU column: Frontiers of Digital Finance: A Global Perspective. HTML.

VoxEU column: Frontiers of Digital Finance: Stablecoins, monetary ‘singleness’, tokenisation, and decentralised finance. HTML.

My introduction to/summary of the book:

The digitisation of payment, trading, and settlement systems is reshaping the financial architecture. New technologies are transforming how value is created, stored, transferred, and accounted for, altering the balance between public and private money, enabling the bundling of services, challenging traditional financial institutions, and prompting a wave of regulatory and institutional responses.

The global picture is uneven. Some regions are leapfrogging others, and conflicting ideologies about the proper role of the state in money give rise to fragmentation and concerns about monetary sovereignty.

This book offers an overview of major trends, as analysed by leading researchers and policymakers. It is structured in four parts. Part 1 presents regional perspectives, examining the approaches taken by India, Brazil, sub-Saharan Africa, the United States, and the euro area. For the euro area, the focus is on the digital euro and its implications for monetary sovereignty, privacy, and holding limits aimed at preserving financial stability.

Part 2 delves into stablecoins – the shooting stars in the digital financial ecosystem. Their evolution has spurred a flurry of policy debate, with the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCAR) and the US GENIUS Act now offering greater regulatory clarity.

Part 3 turns to the concept of monetary ‘singleness’ – the principle that all forms of money in a currency area should be fully interchangeable and trade at par. As new digital forms of money proliferate, the cohesion of the monetary system may be called into question.

Part 4 brings together chapters on tokenisation, digital platforms, and decentralised finance (DeFi), and their broader impact on service bundling, credit allocation, financial inclusion, and consumer protection.

Regional perspectives

In the opening chapter of Part 1, Amiyatosh Purnanandam describes how India’s Unified Payments Interface (UPI), launched in 2016, has improved the efficiency of account-based payment systems by addressing the core frictions of information exchange, authentication, and final settlement. Developed under a public-private partnership, UPI enables real-time, low-cost, and interoperable digital payments between any two entities, regardless of their bank or payment service provider. India overcame challenges around identity verification and financial inclusion by implementing a nationwide system of digital, biometric-based identification and by expanding access to bank accounts for large segments of the unbanked population. These developments, alongside digital infrastructure investments and regulatory support for private sector participation, allowed UPI to lower transaction costs and provide small businesses with digital transaction histories that improved access to credit.

Purnanandam highlights how demonetisation and the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the adoption of UPI. The system’s interoperable design allows users to choose among competing apps, reinforcing network effects and encouraging innovation. Early adoption by banks in some areas led to persistent increases in digital payment usage. Moreover, UPI has enabled streamlined welfare disbursements, with nearly 60% of subsidy payments being delivered directly into beneficiary accounts by 2024. According to Purnanandam, the UPI experience demonstrates the critical role of coordinated efforts across public and private sectors, along with a flexible and inclusive regulatory framework.

Fabio Araujo and Arnildo da Silva Correa describe the Central Bank of Brazil’s comprehensive innovation strategy, Agenda BC#, fostering tokenisation and integration to enable faster, more transparent, and programmable asset transfers. The agenda is built around four interlinked pillars: (1) Pix, an instant payment system launched in 2020, which also supports a ‘synthetic’ retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) model; (2) Open Finance, which promotes secure data sharing and competition; (3) Drex, Brazil’s central bank digital currency designed as a platform for a tokenised economy; and (4) the internationalisation of the Brazilian real, through regulatory modernisation and cross-border interoperability. Each component reinforces the others, creating a cohesive, digital financial ecosystem that enhances efficiency, security, innovation, and inclusivity.

Pix marked the foundational shift, offering a public infrastructure for instant, programmable payments that has been widely adopted across Brazil and credited with improving financial inclusion and spurring innovation. Open Finance expanded the ecosystem by allowing consumers to share financial data among institutions, unlocking more tailored services and competitive offerings. Drex builds on this by introducing distributed ledger technology, enabling advanced programmability, atomicity, and secure, tokenised deposits while incorporating privacy safeguards such as zero-knowledge proofs. Finally, internationalisation efforts are aligning domestic systems with global standards. Together, these initiatives aim to create a user-centric financial system where services are accessed through intelligent aggregators, enhanced by AI and driven by user-controlled data.

Luca Ricci and co-authors describe how digital innovations are reshaping the payment landscape across sub-Saharan Africa, facilitating financial inclusion, payment efficiency, lower remittance costs, and reduced informality. Private mobile money has been particularly impactful, with account ownership far outstripping the growth of traditional bank accounts. While central bank digital currencies, fast payment systems, and crypto assets are debated (with Nigeria having already launched the eNaira), their broader adoption is held back by weak digital infrastructure, limited institutional capacity, low levels of financial and digital literacy, and the high costs of system deployment. Cross-border payments remain slow and costly, and fragile governance frameworks heighten concerns about consumer protection, data privacy, and financial integrity.

To address these challenges, the authors outline four policy priorities: (1) investment in infrastructure and skills; (2) supporting private innovation within secure and competitive regulatory frameworks that enable interoperability and reinforce governance; (3) positioning public digital tools to complement – rather than compete with – private solutions, based on assessments of market gaps and resource needs; and (4) fostering regional and international coordination to ensure interoperability and resilience. Ultimately, digital payment reforms must be anchored in sound macroeconomic policies that preserve monetary sovereignty and financial stability.

Michael Lee argues that the 2025 Executive Order on digital financial technology and the GENIUS Act represent a strategic shift in the United States towards private sector-driven innovation in blockchain-based financial systems. The Executive Order rules out the development of a CBDC while endorsing a technology-neutral approach and regulatory clarity for stablecoins. The GENIUS Act establishes a federal framework for fiat-backed payment stablecoins, mandating at-par redemption, backing primarily by US dollar cash and cash equivalents, and regulatory oversight. Regarding the more than 340 stablecoins in circulation – 97% dollar-denominated and dominated by Tether and Circle – concerns remain over reserve transparency, and redemption practices vary widely.

Beyond stablecoins, Lee describes the increasing tokenisation of Treasury funds and commercial bank deposits. Tokenised US Treasury funds are largely held by long-term investors or used as on-chain reserves. Deposit tokens and tokenised deposits typically align with existing regulatory standards – including full know-your-customer (KYC)/anti-money laundering (AML) compliance and access via whitelisting – and can pay interest. In contrast, stablecoins circulate more freely (issuers functionally manage a whitelist only at the issuance stage) but are barred from offering interest directly under the GENIUS Act; however, issuers often partner with platforms to indirectly deliver yield. Together, these instruments form a spectrum, each balancing accessibility and return in different ways.

Ulrich Bindseil and Piero Cipollone argue that central bank electronic cash (CBEC) is essential to preserving monetary sovereignty, as private (often foreign) service providers increasingly dominate retail payments. This carries significant risks: rising payment costs due to oligopolistic market power, reduced financial and monetary stability, loss of seignorage income, and increased vulnerability to geopolitical risks. Bindseil and Cipollone present CBEC not as a disruption but as a necessary evolution to ensure the continued public provision of a neutral, secure, and sovereign monetary instrument that is designed to complement rather than replace commercial bank money.

The authors emphasise that monetary sovereignty faces new threats from globalisation, the advent of new technologies such as public blockchains, and a surge of nationalism that dismisses the merits of international co-operation. CBEC helps counter these threats across five dimensions: it protects macro-financial stability by preventing dollarisation; it ensures access to payment systems without abuse of market power; it preserves seigniorage income and the financial independence of central banks; it reduces strategic dependencies on foreign actors; and it protects informational sovereignty by avoiding overreliance on foreign-owned platforms.

Maarten van Oordt argues that the accelerating shift away from cash in the euro area is driving a significant erosion of privacy in payments. Unlike cash, electronic payments generate detailed records that are monitored by payment service providers and subjected to regulatory oversight. These data are not only used for compliance but also for commercial purposes, and they can be leveraged not just to monitor but also to censor or exclude individuals. The author emphasises that common justifications for payment surveillance – such as crime prevention and tax enforcement – do not automatically warrant broad monitoring powers in a democratic society.

Van Oordt does not expect the currently proposed digital euro design, which includes both online and offline payment options, to close the growing ‘privacy gap’ in retail payments. Online digital euro payments would be processed centrally, offering little improvement over existing systems, and, depending on the robustness of pseudonymisation techniques, could even exacerbate privacy risks. Offline payments, while potentially more private, face challenges such as usage limits and unresolved security concerns. Without critical amendments – such as enabling remote payments through offline balances or designing online payments to emulate the anonymity of cash – the author foresees the digital euro as heightening surveillance risks. He stresses that privacy in payments is a public good and warns that failing to safeguard it in the digital age would squander a crucial opportunity to redesign the financial system in such a way that upholds individual autonomy and democratic values.

Katrin Assenmacher and Oscar Soons explain that the European Commission’s June 2023 legislative proposal tasks the European Central Bank (ECB) with developing instruments to limit the use of the digital euro as a store of value, including the introduction of individual holding limits. These limits are intended to balance three objectives: enabling convenient payments; ensuring smooth monetary policy transmission; and safeguarding financial stability. The authors describe the ECB’s methodology for calibrating these limits so they are high enough for payment use but low enough to prevent significant bank deposit outflows that could destabilise funding structures.

To assess the appropriate holding limits, the ECB considers both a business-as-usual scenario – where the digital euro is mainly used for payments – and a flight-to-safety scenario, which involves mass withdrawals from banks during crises. Surveys and econometric analyses yield a broad range of estimates for digital euro demand. However, even under conservative assumptions, research indicates that large deposit outflows would likely only arise if individual holding limits exceeded €5,000, at which point banks would need to rely more heavily on central bank or market-based funding to manage liquidity pressures.

Stablecoins

In the first chapter of Part 2, Hugo van Buggenum, Hans Gersbach, and Sebastian Zelzner discuss how stablecoins – digital assets pegged to fiat currencies – have rapidly evolved from niche instruments into a major segment of digital finance. While fiat-backed stablecoins promise to combine the technological advantages of crypto with the stability of traditional money, depegging episodes underscore their vulnerability to run risks due to illiquid reserves, limited issuer commitment, and noisy market signals. Trading on active secondary markets can mitigate run incentives by giving holders alternative exit options when redemptions are restricted.

The authors discuss how the EU MiCA Regulation and the US GENIUS Act address systemic risks posed by stablecoins, focusing on reserve quality, redemption rights, and transparency. They suggest that well-designed redemption restrictions – such as gates or fees – should be permitted to prevent destabilising runs. They also caution against the remuneration of stablecoins, as interest payments could trigger destabilising competitive dynamics and coordination failures across issuers, and examine potential effects on banks, monetary policy transmission, and overall financial stability.

Rodney Garratt highlights the dramatic growth of the US dollar-denominated stablecoin market and the fundamental regulatory shift that now encourages institutional participation, including by commercial banks. The author expects the entry of traditional financial institutions to reshape the competitive landscape, with banks serving their regulated clients via public blockchain-based payment rails, while existing issuers continue to operate within the crypto ecosystem.

Garratt likens stablecoins to digital travellers’ cheques – clearing instruments redeemable at par but not tied to individual account holders. As banks enter the space, redemption frictions and interoperability challenges echo historical issues from the pre-clearinghouse era of cheque processing. He argues that a universal stablecoin clearing system will be crucial for broader adoption, ensuring fungibility and monetary singleness across issuers. While stablecoins may not offer clear advantages in many domestic use cases – given the rise of real-time payment systems – he sees potential in global, programmable transactions, particularly for corporate users needing low-cost, high-speed, cross-border payments. Garratt predicts bank-issued stablecoins will have short lifecycles, acting as temporary payment instruments rather than long-term stores of value.

Steve Cecchetti and Kermit Schoenholtz compare stablecoins and tokenised deposits within the context of the new US regulatory framework. They note that although the GENIUS Act prohibits interest payments to holders, limits eligible reserve assets, and enforces compliance with KYC, AML, and anti-terrorist financing (ATF) standards, it still contains significant regulatory gaps. Platforms can circumvent the interest ban by offering yield-like ‘rewards’; reserve requirements permit exposure to run-prone assets like prime money market funds and uninsured bank deposits; and enforcing illicit-use restrictions is particularly challenging for users of noncustodial wallets. Most notably, the absence of capital requirements raises doubts about the ability of stablecoins to serve as safe, information-insensitive assets under stress.

According to the authors, tokenised bank deposits offer a more stable and robust alternative, combining the legal protections of traditional bank deposits with features such as programmable settlement, real-time clearing, and blockchain interoperability. Because they are issued by regulated, FDIC-insured banks with central bank access, tokenised deposits are shielded from many of the structural vulnerabilities that afflict stablecoins. Moreover, they offer stronger privacy protections, reduce cross-border redemption risks, and more easily support multiple currencies – mitigating concerns around dollar dominance.

David Andolfatto explores the role of Tether (USDT) in the evolving landscape of private digital money, highlighting both its utility and its vulnerabilities. Pegged to the US dollar while operating outside the traditional banking system, Tether fills critical roles in blockchain-based asset trading, cross-border payments, and as a dollar substitute in emerging markets. While verified institutional users are entitled to par redemption, retail users depend on secondary market liquidity. This two-tier structure and the absence of regulatory oversight raise financial stability concerns.

Despite claims of full reserve backing, primarily in short-term US Treasuries, Tether’s transparency is limited to attestations, and it is legally structured to avoid US regulation. But Andolfatto argues that Tether’s reliance on Cantor Fitzgerald, a US-regulated primary dealer, presents a policy window for oversight and systemic risk mitigation. In particular, US policymakers could require Cantor to act as a fiduciary, using its Federal Reserve master account to tighten reserve management, and applying existing AML/KYC standards.

Richard Portes argues that the multi-issuer stablecoin model (MISC), where a stablecoin is issued jointly by EU-regulated institutions and third-country entities, presents serious financial stability risks and regulatory challenges. This arrangement, not explicitly foreseen under the MiCA regulation, creates loopholes for regulatory arbitrage, fragmented reserve management, and accountability confusion, particularly during redemption runs or crises. The fungibility of tokens across jurisdictions allows issuers and holders to treat them as interchangeable, even though only part of the system is subject to EU rules, reserves may be ringfenced abroad during stress, and redemptions could be unequally honoured.

Portes sees several policy options, including banning MISCs outright, amending MiCA to explicitly regulate cross-jurisdiction co-issuance, or developing global regulatory standards. He notes that some EU policymakers have voiced strong opposition to MISCs, and warns that regardless of the legislative path chosen, urgent supervisory and legal adaptations are needed to preserve financial stability, close regulatory gaps, and uphold MiCA’s credibility in a globalised crypto-financial system.

Harald Uhlig compares European plans for a CBDC and the US strategy to promote privately issued stablecoins. While the ECB sees CBDC as a way to modernise cash, preserve monetary sovereignty, and reduce dependence on foreign payment providers, the US approach possibly reflects stronger trust in markets and concerns about government overreach and privacy. Despite these different strategies, the author notes a fundamental convergence: both digital currencies must avoid paying interest and may ultimately rely on central bank backing to ensure safety and stability.

Uhlig is critical of the US regulatory framework that prevents stablecoins from becoming robust and competitive – particularly the denial of Federal Reserve master accounts and interest payments, which would allow them to operate like fully reserved narrow banks. He warns that this creates stablecoins that are ‘fragile by design’, as illustrated by recent depegging events. He also highlights the inconsistency of paying interest on bank reserves but not on digital cash held by the public, viewing it as a concession to the traditional banking sector. While stablecoins may offer innovative features like smart contracts and programmable payments, their growth could generate international tensions. Ultimately, Uhlig sees stablecoins and CBDCs as part of ongoing creative destruction in finance – technological progress that doesn’t eliminate but instead relocates deeper structural tensions like liquidity risk and maturity mismatches.

Monetary singleness

In the first chapter of Part 3, Rhys Bidder explores the principle of singleness of money – the idea that all forms of money within a currency area, including bank deposits and digital tokens, should trade at par with the central bank’s unit of account. In the traditional two-tier banking system, singleness is maintained through central bank infrastructure and liquidity support, ensuring trust and stability. In contrast, stablecoins and DeFi instruments operate outside these systems, making minor deviations from par common.

Bidder argues that these small fluctuations are not inherently problematic and may fade as technology, transparency, and market infrastructure improve. The real concern lies in large depegs during periods of stress, such as during the 2023 US banking crisis, which exposed the fragility of stablecoins under liquidity pressure. To address this, he proposes that stablecoins backed by high-quality assets be granted conditional access to emergency liquidity facilities. Rather than fixating on minor price noise, the policy debate should focus on preventing systemic instability during times of stress.

Jonathan Chiu and Cyril Monnet similarly examine the concept of monetary singleness. Their starting point is the common concern among central banks that programmable digital currencies – whose use can be restricted through embedded rules – could undermine singleness by creating distinctions among tokens of equal face value. This concern has led central banks to dismiss digital currencies incorporating programmability. In contrast, the authors argue that programmability can enhance economic efficiency and that the loss of singleness may be an acceptable – or even desirable – feature in certain contexts.

Chiu and Monnet observe that, under perfect information, token prices would adjust to reflect differences in restrictions, enabling efficient allocations despite the loss of singleness. In such cases, prohibiting programmability would reduce welfare. However, under imperfect information, adverse selection may arise, with unrestricted tokens effectively subsidising restricted ones. As these distortions grow, the welfare gains from programmability diminish. The authors challenge the conventional view – often informed by the US free banking era – that non-uniform money necessarily leads to inefficiency. Instead, they advocate for a nuanced regulatory approach, such as Pigouvian taxes on excessive programmability or incentives to enhance token transparency.

Tokenisation, platforms, credit, and decentralised finance

In the first chapter of Part 4, Jon Frost, Leonardo Gambacorta, Anneke Kosse, and Peter Wierts argue that tokenisation – the digital representation of assets on programmable platforms – has the potential to improve the efficiency and functionality of the financial system. The tokenisation of money, including central bank money and commercial bank deposits, could be a first step, while stablecoins fall short in the authors’ eyes on stability, liquidity, and regulatory compliance. They suggest building on the existing two-tier monetary system and integrating tokenisation with central bank money to ensure trust and safety.

The authors also see potential for tokenisation to enhance capital markets – particularly in bond issuance – by reducing costs and improving liquidity. However, they also point to risks stemming from legal uncertainty, operational vulnerabilities, and the concentration of multiple functions on single platforms. Governance challenges and poor interoperability with legacy systems further complicate adoption. In the authors’ view, both public and private sectors have roles to play in managing these risks and enabling tokenisation to contribute meaningfully to financial safety and efficiency.

Emre Ozdenoren and Kathy Yuan explore how tokenised money – digital currencies issued or guaranteed by central banks or private platforms – can transform financial systems by automating transactions, reducing information frictions, and enhancing liquidity. Unlike traditional digital payment instruments, tokenised money incorporates smart contracts, enabling automatic enforcement of contractual terms without intermediaries. It serves a dual function as both a payment method and a collateral asset for financial contracts, offering greater efficiency, security, and traceability. Its programmability reduces human error, minimises fraud, and lowers custodial and settlement costs, particularly in complex financial transactions involving future obligations.

Ozdenoren and Yuan describe how tokenised money acts as a collateral multiplier, expanding the supply of secure and transparent assets while reducing reliance on sovereign bonds – thereby mitigating systemic risks such as the ‘dash for cash’ or the sovereign-financial doom loop. Tokenisation also enables the creation of secondary markets, closely integrating funding and market liquidity. While it introduces new risks, including cybersecurity threats and novel financial vulnerabilities, its potential benefits – and seigniorage opportunities for issuers – position tokenised money as a foundational element of future financial infrastructure.

Markus Brunnermeier and Jonathan Payne similarly stress the role of digital payment ledgers in offering a powerful new mechanism to expand access to credit by embedding repayment directly into digital transaction systems. Turning future revenues into ‘digital collateral’, these systems promise to relax borrowing constraints, but their potential is shaped less by technology than by institutional design and confronts a trilemma: no arrangement can simultaneously ensure strong enforcement, limit private rent extraction, and preserve user privacy. According to the authors, this trilemma lies at the heart of the evolving financial architecture.

Brunnermeier and Payne compare three institutional approaches. The first is BigTech platforms, which can enforce repayment by controlling trade and payment flows, using proprietary tokens and internal ledgers, but create risks of monopoly power and privacy loss. The second is public options – from basic infrastructure like FedNow to full programmable CBDCs – that can serve as inclusive, transparent alternatives, but may weaken enforcement or require trade-offs on privacy. The third approach is regulatory ‘co-opetition’ between platforms, which encourages enforcement through shared data and coordinated default tracking, while using competition to suppress rents. All these models face technical and governance complexities, particularly in enforcing privacy and limiting systemic risk. The authors conclude that, ultimately, expanding access to credit through digital payment systems demands a nuanced balance across enforcement, rent extraction, and privacy.

Wenqian Huang describes how DeFi is transforming financial infrastructure by enabling trading and lending without traditional intermediaries. At the core of this system are decentralised exchanges and lending protocols that use smart contracts to automate market functions. Decentralised exchanges replace order books with pooled liquidity and algorithmic pricing, enabling large trades with minimal price dislocation for near-par instruments like stablecoins. DeFi lending protocols mimic collateralised finance by letting users borrow against tokenised assets, with automatic margin calls enforced by code. These innovations are now expanding into real-world asset markets, such as tokenised real estate.

Huang argues that the integration of DeFi mechanisms into tokenised real-world asset markets offers efficiency gains but also introduces risks. As DeFi becomes increasingly intertwined with fiat systems and real assets, the challenge for regulators is to craft oversight that acknowledges decentralisation while mitigating systemic risk. Ultimately, DeFi’s contribution may not lie in replacing existing institutions but in reshaping our understanding of resilient and efficient market design.

Claudio Tebaldi argues that digital adoption, rising incomes, and growing global interest have brought a younger, more diverse cohort of retail investors into financial markets. While these investors now access a broad range of complex financial products, their financial literacy is often low and their understanding of product risks inadequate. De facto, digital innovation brings with it a form of technology-driven deregulation, and finding the right balance between fostering innovation and protecting retail investors is difficult. While some regulatory environments, such as that of the European Union, emphasise consumer protection through rules and oversight, they often limit scalability and participation, raising concerns about accessibility and innovation. In some cases, platform design – rather than regulation – bears the burden of educating and guiding users.

Tebaldi proposes a regulatory framework that balances the goals of consumer protection, large-scale participation, and inclusive stakeholder governance. He argues that AI-powered robo-advisory tools offer promise in bridging the education gap at scale. To improve governance, token issuers should meet governance standards comparable to those common in traditional finance.

“CBDC and Monetary Architecture,” UniBe DP, 2025

UniBe VWI Discussion Paper 25-09, October 2025. PDF.

We review the macroeconomic literature on retail central bank digital currency (CBDC), organizing the discussion around a CBDC-irrelevance result. We identify both fundamental and policy-related sources of relevance, or departures from neutrality. Bank disintermediation—the crowding out of deposits—does not, by itself, constitute such a source. We argue that the literature has primarily focused on policy-related sources of non-neutrality, often without making this focus explicit. From a macroeconomic perspective, CBDC is, at its core, a matter of monetary architecture, and political economy considerations are central to understanding CBDC policy design.

Does the US Administration Prohibit the Use of Reserves?

An executive order issued on January 23, 2025, aims at protecting “Americans from the risks of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), which threaten the stability of the financial system, individual privacy, and the sovereignty of the United States, including by prohibiting the establishment, issuance, circulation, and use of a CBDC within the jurisdiction of the United States.”

The executive order defines CBDC as “a form of digital money or monetary value, denominated in the national unit of account, that is a direct liability of the central bank.”

As (a reader of) Matt Levine’s newsletter points out, the two statements combined have wide ranging implications. Reserves, which are issued by the Fed and which banks use to pay each other, are a form of digital money; they are denominated in the national unit of account; and they are a direct liability of the central bank. So, their issuance and use is prohibited now. This would mean the end of the monetary architecture as we know it. Or, the executive order was just not carefully drafted.

Unlike in the executive order, retail CBDC is typically defined as “reserves for all,” that is digital; in the national unit of account; a direct liability of the Fed; and ACCESSIBLE TO EVERYBODY rather than just banks. Prohibiting CBDC as typically understood would not be as wide ranging, but still not necessarily a good idea. As Morten Bech has pointed out, CBDC = MM0GA or

CBDC = make M0 great again.

HT to Beatrice Weder di Mauro.

“Money and Banking with Reserves and CBDC,” JF, 2024

Journal of Finance. HTML (local copy).

Abstract:

We analyze the role of retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) and reserves when banks exert deposit market power and liquidity transformation entails externalities. Optimal monetary architecture minimizes the social costs of liquidity provision and optimal monetary policy follows modified Friedman rules. Interest rates on reserves and CBDC should differ. Calibrations robustly suggest that CBDC provides liquidity more efficiently than deposits unless the central bank must refinance banks and this is very costly. Accordingly, the optimal share of CBDC in payments tends to exceed that of deposits.

Bank of England CBDC Academic Advisory Group

The Bank of England and HM Treasury have formed a CBDC Academic Advisory Group (AAG).

The AAG will bring together a diverse, multi-disciplinary group of experts to encourage academic research, debate and promote discussion on a range of topics, to support the Bank and HM Treasury’s work during the design phase of a digital pound.

Members:

Alexander Edmund Voorhoeve Professor of Philosophy London School of Economics
Alistair Milne Professor of Financial Economics Loughborough University
Andrew Theo Levin Professor of Economics Dartmouth College
Anna Omarini Tenured Researcher and an Adjunct Professor in Financial Markets and Institutions Bocconi University
Bill Buchanan Professor of Computing Edinburgh Napier University
Burcu Yüksel Ripley Senior Lecturer of Law University of Aberdeen
Danae Stanton Fraser Professor in Human Computer interaction, CREATE Lab University of Bath
Darren Duxbury Professor of Finance Newcastle University
David Robert Skeie Professor of Finance University of Warwick
Davide Romelli Associate Professor in Economics Trinity College Dublin
Dirk Niepelt Professor of Macroeconomics University of Bern & CEPR
Doh-Shin Jeon Professor of Economics Toulouse School of Economics
Gbenga Ibikunle Professor and Chair of Finance University of Edinburgh
Iwa Salami Reader (Associate Professor) in Law and Director, Centre of Fintech University of East London
Jonathan Michie Pro-Vice-Chancellor and Professor of Innovation & Knowledge Exchange Kellogg College, University of Oxford
Marta F. Arroyabe Reader & Deputy Head of Group University of Essex
Michael Cusumano Deputy Dean and Professor of Management Sloan School of Management, MIT
Pinar Ozcan Professor of Entrepreneurship and innovation Said Business School, University of Oxford
Sheri Marina Markose Professor of Economics University of Essex

Conference on “The Macroeconomic Implications of Central Bank Digital Currencies,” CEPR/ECB, 2023

Conference jointly organized by CEPR’s RPN FinTech & Digital Currencies and the European Central Bank. Welcome speech by Piero Cippolone, keynote by Fabio Panetta.

Organizers: Toni Ahnert, Katrin Assenmacher, Massimo Ferrari Minesso, Peter Hoffmann, Arnaud Mehl, Dirk Niepelt.

CEPR’s conference website. ECB’s website with videos. Website with pictures.

Panel on “The Economics of CBDC,” Riksbank, 2023

Panel at the Bank of Canada/Riksbank Conference on the Economics of CBDC, November 16, 2023. Video.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller, UCSB professor Rod Garratt and myself assess the case for central bank digital currency and stable coins and respond to excellent questions from the audience.

“Retail CBDC and the Social Costs of Liquidity Provision,” VoxEU, 2023

VoxEU, September 27, 2023. HTML.

From the conclusions:

… it is critical to account for indirect in addition to direct social costs and benefits when ranking monetary architectures.

… the costs and benefits we consider point to an important role of central bank digital currency in an optimal monetary architecture unless pass-through funding is necessary to stabilise capital investment and very costly.

… the interest rate on CBDC should differ from zero and from the rate on reserves.

From the text:

Notes: The dark grey area represents the efficiency advantage of CBDC needed to make it less costly than a two-tier system with optimum reserve holdings. The light grey area displays the same object but based on actual US reserve holdings rather than model-implied optimal ones. These distributions allow for pass-through costs and tax distortions, quantified by assuming taxing households causes deadweight burdens of 25% per tax dollar. The distributions are based on two million realisations.

Conference on “The Future of Payments and Digital Assets,” Bocconi/CEPR, 2023

Conference jointly organized by Bocconi’s Algorand FinTech Lab and CEPR’s RPN FinTech & Digital Currencies. Keynotes by Hyun Song Shin and Xavier Vives. Organized by Claudio Tebaldi and Dirk Niepelt.

CEPR’s conference website with program. Bocconi’s website with videos and more.

“Money and Banking with Reserves and CBDC,” CEPR, 2023

CEPR Discussion Paper 18444, September 2023. HTML (local copy).

Abstract:

We analyze the role of retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) and reserves when banks exert deposit market power and liquidity transformation entails externalities. Optimal monetary architecture minimizes the social costs of liquidity provision and optimal monetary policy follows modified Friedman (1969) rules. Interest rates on reserves and CBDC should differ. Calibrations robustly suggest that CBDC provides liquidity more efficiently than deposits unless the central bank must refinance banks and this is very costly. Accordingly, the optimal share of CBDC in payments tends to exceed that of deposits.

“Why the Digital Euro Might be Dead on Arrival,” VoxEU, 2023

With Cyril Monnet. VoxEU, August 10, 2023. HTML.

… promoting the digital euro requires an aggressive marketing strategy because private incentives for adoption are limited. However, the pursuit of such an aggressive approach is unlikely as this runs counter to the ECB’s fourth, implicit objective of protecting banks’ existing business model.

This is problematic and could turn the project into a significant missed opportunity, for the potential social benefits of the digital euro substantially exceed its private ones.

“Der digitale Euro könnte zur Totgeburt werden (Digital Euro, Dead on Arrival?),” NZZ, 2023

Neue Zürcher Zeitung, July 5, 2023. PDF. HTML.

Ein digitaler Euro könnte den Wettbewerb fördern, mehr Transparenz schaffen und das Too-big-to-fail-Problem entschärfen. Mit ihrer Minimalvariante aber priorisiert die EZB das Ziel der Bewahrung des Status quo im Bankensystem.

“Digital Euro: An Assessment of the First Two Progress Reports,” SUERF, 2023

SUERF Policy Brief 612, June 2023. HTML, PDF.

Executive summary:

The ECB’s first two progress reports on the digital euro clarify the project teams’ considerations. Some motivations for a digital euro remain vague, some fundamental tradeoffs receive limited attention. Most importantly, the reports lack an analysis of why digital euro holdings as stores of value are not desirable and whether strategies to limit such holdings cause collateral damage. Against that backdrop some of the design choices backed by the Governing Council appear premature.

“Digital Euro: An Assessment of the First Two Progress Reports,” European Parliament, 2023

European Parliament, April 2023. PDF.

Executive summary:

The two progress reports provide an insightful overview over some of the thinking underlying the digital euro project. The reports remain vague in some respects, which is not surprising given the early stage of the project and the division of tasks between the ECB and the Commission.

The first report suggests that the digital euro can help preserve public money as the anchor of the payment system, but it does not explain how the decline in cash use endangers the anchor role or how a digital euro would mitigate the associated risks. It motivates the digital euro as contributing to Europe’s strategic autonomy, but does not clarify whether the autonomy concerns national security, cheaper payment services, or monetary sovereignty, and why either of these would suggest a focus on consumers rather than business users. More generally, the report discusses few economic motives for a digital euro in depth and this raises doubts about the proper sequencing of design choices. Some arguments for privacy restrictions are not fully convincing. The most important shortcoming of the first report is the lack of analysis of why digital euro holdings as stores of value are not desirable (or why this issue is beyond discussion) and whether strategies to limit such holdings cause collateral damage.

The second report lacks a discussion of incentive compatibility of the envisioned public-private partnership model. It also lacks detail on the proposed settlement, funding and defunding models and on the incidence of the payment scheme’s costs.

The reports do not discuss implications for central bank balance sheets, interest rates, political interference, and the ECB’s mandate to introduce a digital euro.

My colleague Cyril Monnet also wrote a report (PDF). His executive summary:

Since Facebook’s announcement of Libra in July 2019, central banks, including the European Central Bank (ECB), have accelerated investigations on the introduction of their own retail digital currency.

This study analyses the two reports published by the ECB regarding its investigation for the introduction of a digital euro.

The digital euro can offer many advantages over existing means of payment. However, most of these benefits, as outlined in the two reports, are of a systemic and social nature, rather than being benefits for users.

A broad acceptance and usage of the digital euro requires that it brings benefits not only to consumers but also to merchants. The digital euro needs a platform business model that brings consumers but also incentivises merchants to adopt it.

In addition, considering the social benefits it brings, the ECB should design the digital euro to promote its appeal. The ECB should consider eliminating holding limits and discontinuing penalising remuneration schemes as soon as possible after its introduction. Also, the ECB should consider adding some programmability features to the digital euro.

There are also some challenges ahead.

The deployment of the digital euro by regulated intermediaries results in a conflict of interest, as the digital euro competes with a significant source of their revenue, i.e. payments. To restrict the fees charged to users of the digital euro by intermediaries, the ECB should consider implementing a transparent fee structure that may incorporate subsidies.

Also, while consumers use cash to preserve their anonymity, the digital euro will always leave a data trail. It is therefore key that the future design of the digital euro preserves at least the privacy of its users, which may require the central bank to make compromises with some other objectives.

It is not clear that distributed ledger technology (DLT) is the best way to deploy the digital euro but making it DLT compatible and programmable can foster innovations in decentralised finance.

Update, late May 2023: Christian Hofmann also wrote a report (PDF). His executive summary:

… This paper argues that the paramount reason for introducing a digital euro should lie in the imperfections of the existing money landscape that offers the public suboptimal choices for store of value and payment transactions. In that respect, the introduction of a digital euro holds great promise for the public, and this paper focuses on one of the most essential design features of a digital euro. The European Central Bank (ECB) plans to introduce a limited version of a digital euro that would cap the maximum amounts of digital euros that individuals can hold, but this paper challenges the ECB’s assumption that such caps are needed in the interest of financial stability. The concerns voiced by the ECB and other central banks about the risks from sudden outflows of liquidity from bank deposits to CBDC are realistic, but this paper argues that these risks are manageable and that a digital euro might even support financial stability in a banking crisis. Properly implemented, an unlimited digital euro would allow central banks and other authorities to wield control more effectively during bank run scenarios and improve their overall ability to manage crises situations. 

The Economist on CBDC—and SVB

The Economist refers to our work in the `Free Exchange’ section:

But some argue banks would work fine if the public switched their deposits for central-bank digital currencies, so long as the central bank stepped in to replace the lost funding. “The issuance of [such currencies] would simply render the central bank’s implicit lender-of-last-resort guarantee explicit,” wrote Markus Brunnermeier and Dirk Niepelt in 2019. This scenario seems to have partly materialised since the failure of svb, as deposits have fled small banks for money-market funds which can park cash at the Fed, while the Fed makes loans to banks.

“Finanzplatz steuert auf eine Verstaatlichung der UBS zu (Switzerland on its Way to Nationalizing UBS),” NZZ, 2023

Neue Zürcher Zeitung, March 22, 2023. PDF.

  • How to respond? Nationalization now rather than later? Breaking UBS up? Placing government representatives on the supervisory board?
  • Illiquidity crises and the lender of last resort.
  • Vollgeld, higher reserve requirements, and CBDC as partial solutions to TBTF problems.

Mariana: CBDCs in Automated Market Makers

Three BIS innovation hubs plan to test DeFi inspired liquidity pools to exchange wCBDCs. BIS press release:

  • Project Mariana will use DeFi protocols to automate foreign exchange markets and settlement.
  • Automated market makers can become the basis for new generation of financial infrastructure.
  • Exploration on cross-border exchange of wholesale CBDCs is the first to involve three Hub centres.

The BIS Innovation Hub is launching a new project around central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and Decentralised Finance (DeFi) protocols as part of its 2022 work programme.

Project Mariana explores automated market makers (AMM) for the cross-border exchange of hypothetical Swiss franc, euro and Singapore dollar wholesale CBDCs. It will seek to examine the potential between financial institutions to settle foreign exchange trades in financial markets.

The project involves the Eurosystem, Singapore and Switzerland BIS Innovation Hub Centres together with the Bank of France, Monetary Authority of Singapore and Swiss National Bank. The aim is to deliver a proof of concept by mid-2023.

Project Mariana uses DeFi protocols to automate foreign exchange markets and settlement, potentially improving cross-border payments (and supporting a priority of the Group of 20). Today, DeFi built on public blockchains uses smart contract protocols to automate markets for crypto and digital assets. AMM protocols combine pooled liquidity with innovative algorithms to determine the prices between two or more tokenised assets. In the future, similar AMM protocols could form the basis for a new generation of financial infrastructures facilitating the cross-border exchange of CBDCs.

“Money and Banking with Reserves and CBDC,” UniBe, 2022

UniBe Discussion Paper 22-12, October 2022. PDF.

We analyze retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) in a two-tier monetary system with bank deposit market power and externalities from liquidity transformation. Resource costs of liquidity provision determine the optimal monetary architecture and modified Friedman (1969) rules the optimal monetary policy. Optimal interest rates on reserves and CBDC differ. A calibration for the U.S. suggests a weak case for CBDC in the baseline but a much clearer case when too-big-to-fail banks, tax distortions or instrument restrictions are present. Depending on central bank choices CBDC raises U.S. bank funding costs by up to 1.5 percent of GDP.

Webinar on “Digital Money and Finance: What’s New?,” CEPR/SUERF/CB&DC, 2023

CEPR/SUERF/CB&DC webinar with Darrell Duffie, Todd Keister, Harald Uhlig, Dirk Niepelt.

Youtube

Digitisation rapidly changes money, banking and finance. Are these changes fundamental and radical—or part of a continuous process of technological progress and efficiency improvement? Do academics have to re-think money, banking and finance—or do conventional theories apply? And do finance professionals and regulators need to re-assess their frameworks and tools to keep up with the transformation?

Darrell Duffie (Stanford University and Fintech & Digital Currencies RPN Member), Todd Keister (Rutgers University and Fintech & Digital Currencies RPN Member) and Harald Uhlig (University of Chicago, CEPR and Fintech & Digital Currencies RPN Member), three experts on macro economics, monetary economics and finance, shared their views on these and related questions. The webinar, which has been moderated by Dirk Niepelt (University of Bern, SUERF, CEPR and Fintech & Digital Currencies RPN Leader), started with brief opening remarks by each of the experts, followed by a discussion and a Q&A session.

No CBDC Act

Source

IN THE SENATE OF THE UNITED STATES
September 13, 2022

Mr. Lee (for himself and Mr. Braun) introduced the following bill; which was read twice and referred to the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs

A BILL

To amend the Federal Reserve Act to limit the ability of Federal Reserve banks to issue central bank digital currency.

Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled,

SECTION 1. SHORT TITLE.

This Act may be cited as the “No Central Bank Digital Currency Act” or the “No CBDC Act”.

SEC. 2. CENTRAL BANK DIGITAL CURRENCY.

Section 13 of the Federal Reserve Act is amended by adding after the 14th undesignated paragraph (12 U.S.C. 347d) the following:

“ No Federal reserve bank, the Board, the Secretary of the Treasury, any other agency, or any entity directed to act on behalf of the Federal reserve bank, the Board, the Secretary, or other agency, may mint or issue a central bank digital currency directly to an individual (including central bank digital currency issued to an individual through a custodial intermediary) or a digital currency intermediary, offer related products or services directly to an individual, or maintain an account on behalf of an individual (including an account in a specially designated account at a digital currency intermediary or supervised commercial bank). No Federal reserve bank may hold digital currencies minted or issued by the United States Government as assets or liabilities on their balance sheets or use such digital currencies as part of fulfilling the requirements under section 2A.”.

Smart Banknote CBDC

Orell Füssli news release:

Orell Füssli Ltd. Security Printing and AUGENTIC GmbH announced their partnership on a “Smart Banknote CBDC” solution including trustwise.io’s Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) a week ago. A smart banknote is a physical banknote that interacts with a CBDC solution and acts as a transitional device between traditional and CBDC based payment systems. A smart banknote can be used like a classic banknote; however, the owner can redeem his cold wallet (physical banknote) and transfer the note’s value to a digital wallet by scanning the QR code with the private key. Our smart banknote includes a public and a private key represented by QR codes of which the private one is sealed. When the cover of the private key is removed, the QR code scanned, the value of the banknote can be transferred to a digital wallet. Conceptually after this procedure, the smart banknote cannot be transferred anymore.