Real Interest Rates

James Hamilton, Ethan Harris, Jan Hatzius and Kenneth West have computed historical time series for real interest rates in several countries (paper, blog post). The authors argue that there is significant uncertainty surrounding the equilibrium real rate—but no strong evidence for “secular stagnation.” They also argue that the uncertainty calls for inertial monetary policy. The paper includes many figures, for instance on this page a figure about US and UK real rates.