Credit Default Swaps

In a set of slides from Deutsche Bank Research (from 2011), Kevin Körner discusses credit default swaps and the sovereign default probabilities implied by these swaps.

The CDS spread amounts to the insurance premium a protection buyer pays to the protection seller; it is quoted in basis points per year of the underlying security’s notional amount; and it is paid quarterly. In the event of a default on the underlying security, the protection seller effectively must pay one minus the recovery rate on the security (the protection seller pays the notional amount and receives the security).

Example: A CDS spread of 339 bp for five-year Italian debt means that default insurance for a notional amount of EUR 1 m costs EUR 33,900 per annum; this premium is paid quarterly (i.e. EUR 8,475 per quarter).

“In equilibrium,” the present discounted value of premium payments (up to the maturity of the underlying security) corresponds with the present discounted compensation payments by the protection seller (up to maturity).

Current data.